How Illari's signals have played out
When Illari's scanner first detects a signal, it logs the price at that moment. Signals that point one way — up or down — are then checked against the market one day and one week later. These are the results, hits and misses, counted straight from that log. Nothing is projected forward, and every rate is shown with the number of outcomes behind it.
Signals from Aug 24, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026 · updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
- Hits
- 1,005
- Misses
- 1,106
- Flat
- 196
- Average move in the signalled direction
- −0.59% · over 2,291 outcomes, 16 data errors left out
Based on 2,307 scored outcomes.
- Hits
- 728
- Misses
- 846
- Flat
- 70
- Average move in the signalled direction
- −1.28% · over 1,594 outcomes, 50 data errors left out
Based on 1,644 scored outcomes.
Read this as an early, short record. Signal direction has only been stored since late August 2026, so it covers weeks of signals, not years, and one market regime. A hit rate on a few hundred outcomes can move several points with the next batch, and a record this short says little about how the same signals would behave in a different market. Past results do not predict future ones, and none of this is investment advice.
By signal type
Only signal types with at least 20 scored one-day outcomes are listed. 2 smaller types (11 outcomes) are counted in the totals above but not broken out. A one-week rate is shown only once that type has 20 scored one-week outcomes.
| Signal | 1D hit rate | 1D n | 1D avg move | 1W hit rate | 1W n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13D / 13G Filing | 31.3% | 348 | −1.05% | 29.7% | 195 |
| Gap Up | 42.9% | 340 | −1.55% | 36.4% | 286 |
| Gap Down | 47.4% | 306 | +1.29% | 58.2% | 208 |
| Top Gainer | 31.2% | 260 | −6.97% | 29.4% | 177 |
| Top Loser | 58.1% | 246 | +4.04% | 66.5% | 158 |
| VWAP Reclaim | 36.5% | 137 | −4.22% | 27.2% | 103 |
| Insider Selling | 50.4% | 119 | +0.41% | 61.7% | 94 |
| EMA Bounce | 37.5% | 112 | +0.19% | 33.7% | 92 |
| Breakout | 48.8% | 86 | −0.31% | 45.6% | 68 |
| Oversold (RSI) | 45.8% | 72 | −3.11% | 40.7% | 54 |
| Breakdown | 65.7% | 70 | +5.46% | 71.7% | 46 |
| Overbought (RSI) | 59.4% | 64 | +5.41% | 68.6% | 51 |
| Options Flow | 48.1% | 54 | −0.54% | 37.1% | 35 |
| Insider Buying | 50.0% | 46 | +0.79% | 57.1% | 42 |
| Institutional Accum. | 64.3% | 28 | +0.22% | 43.5% | 23 |
By month
Grouped by the month the signal fired (New York time). A rate is printed only for months with at least 20 scored outcomes. The latest month is still filling in — especially at one week, which cannot be scored until seven days have passed.
| Month | 1D hits / scored | 1D hit rate | 1W hits / scored | 1W hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 379 / 842 | 45.0% | 365 / 827 | 44.1% |
| Sep 2026 | 553 / 1,343 | 41.2% | 309 / 724 | 42.7% |
| Oct 2026 | 65 / 108 | 60.2% | 54 / 93 | 58.1% |
| Nov 2026 | 8 / 14 | — | 0 / 0 | — |
Methodology
What is counted. When the scanner first detects a signal, Illari records the ticker, the signal type, the price at that moment and — for signal types that point one way — a direction: up (for example gap up, breakout, new 52-week high) or down (gap down, breakdown, new 52-week low). That includes signals our quality checks held back from the feed, not only the ones shown in the app. A signal that is detected again later does not add a second entry, and at most one entry per stock, signal type and day is counted.
What “correct” means. A signal is a hit when the price moved more than 0.5% in the signalled direction by the horizon, a miss when it moved more than 0.5% the other way, and flat otherwise. The hit rate is hits divided by all scored signals, so flat results count against it. It measures direction only — not whether a particular trade on the signal would have made money after spreads, fees or option pricing.
Horizons. One day is the first daily close after the signal date; one week is the first daily close on or after seven calendar days later. Both are measured from the price recorded at detection (or, when that quote failed, the close on the signal day).
What is left out. Signal types with no direction — unusual volume, trading halts, earnings dates, news, most volatile and similar — are never scored, so they are not in these numbers. Chart-pattern signals (double tops, wedges, channels and the like) are excluded: Illari passes those through from Finviz without a view on whether they predict anything, and does not score them here. Results from members' own brokerage trades are never included — this page contains no user data. Moves larger than 100% are treated as split or data errors and left out of the average move (they still count in the hit rate); the number left out is shown.
Average move is the mean percentage price change in the signalled direction — a down signal whose stock fell 2% counts as +2%. It is an average of raw price moves, not a return on any strategy.